← Brood en Spelen HVN Regionals
Water FractalTier 1
at Brood en Spelen HVN Regionals
decks
3
(13.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-6-2
overall winrate
53.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1314
· median 1291
· range 1242–1411
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1074
Q1 1173
Q3 1415
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 17.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.2% | +3.2 |
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.0% | -6.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.4% | -5.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.7% | +5.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
